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“The goal of education is the advancement of knowledge and the dissemination of truth.” - John F. Kennedy
 

Friday, November 1, 2019

MARKET RECAP Stocks moved into record territory as the US up by 1.55% and international stocks advanced by 1.30%. As anticipated, the Fed cut rates by 1/4% and a strong jobs report indicated that a recession does not appear in the...

 

Friday, October 18, 2019

MARKET RECAP Stocks advanced by 0.63% in the US and by 0.92% overseas. International stocks have been outperforming since mid-August. The graph below charts the ratio of US stocks (VTI) to stocks outside the US (VXUS) and the declining...

 

Friday, October 11, 2019

MARKET RECAP US stocks were up this week by 0.60% and international stocks had a big week, +1.96%. Stocks managed the advance on optimism of a breakthrough on the trade front with China. On Friday, it was announced that China would buy...

 

Friday, October 4, 2019

MARKET RECAP Stocks fell early in the week as disappointing PMI reports raised recession fears but rallied on Thursday and Friday on decent jobs numbers. Investors are expecting another Fed rate cut later in the month. Interest rates...

 

Friday, September 27, 2019

MARKET RECAP US stocks dropped by 1.14% and international stocks were down by 1.23%. An impeachment inquiry began on Trump, the repo market needed more help, and Germany seems close to a recession, add on to that a word that the US...

 

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Friday, September 13, 2019

MARKET RECAP Stocks were up for the third straight week as recession fears faded slightly and the chances for a trade deal supposedly improved. How many times have we heard that before? Trump delayed tariffs on some items and China did...

 

Friday, September 6, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks rally on word of a US-China meeting in October. Jobs are up but the pace is slowing. ISM falls into negative territory. Tariffs are cutting into US growth. MARKET RECAP US stocks rallied by 1.77% and international...

 

Friday, August 30, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks were up around the world. Consumer spending remains strong. Foreign investment is flowing into the US due to negative interest rates. The next round of tariffs starts today. PMI reports later this week. MARKET RECAP...

 

Friday, August 23, 2019

MARKET RECAP Stocks fell by 1.38% in the US and 0.70% outside the US amidst more trade problems. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that future interest rate cuts are possible, but he made it clear that the Fed can only do so much in face...

 

Friday, August 16, 2019

MARKET RECAP Both US and international stocks fell by about 1.1%, down for the third straight week. The entire psychology of the market has changed since Trump's trade tweet a few weeks ago. Investors are worried about the threat of a...

 

Friday, August 9, 2019

MARKET RECAP Stocks wavered between down, then up, and then down, finally finishing off by 0.44% in the USA and 1.10% outside the US. US stocks got hammered on Monday, falling about 3%, after the Chinese yuan broke through the...

 

Friday, August 2, 2019

MARKET RECAP Stocks lost ground every day this week. On Wednesday, losses were due to Fed Chair Jay Powell's comments on the rate cut (see further below). But the losses accelerated on Thursday and Friday after Trump announced more...

 

Friday, July 26, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks close at a record high. GDP is up by 2.1%. IMF growth projections revised down. Congress and the White House agree on a budget deal that worsens the deficit. Boris Johnson is Britain's new PM increasing the odds of...

 

Friday, July 19, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks were down in the US by 1.18% and by 0.34% outside the US. China and the US are "a long way" from a trade deal, according to Trump. Tensions with Iran increase. Earnings are coming in better than expected but still...

 

Friday, July 12, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks were up by 0.70%.Fed Chair Powell seems to have given the go-ahead to a rate cut later in the month.A rate cut in a growing economy, with unemployment at close to record lows, with no liquidity crisis, and markets...

 

Friday, July 5, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks move higher by 1.64% on news of a US/China trade truce. Some analysts are looking for a big move higher in the market. A stronger than expected payroll report. While stocks have moved higher, earnings estimates...

 

Friday, June 28, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks were down, and international stocks rise. Stocks wrap up the best half-year since 1997 and the best June since 1955. Trump and Jinping declare a cease-fire on trade. Falling GDP estimates. MARKET RECAP Stocks fell...

 

Friday, June 21, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS A new record high for stocks. Trump and Jinping to meet at the G20. Powell signals interest rate cuts to come soon. Iran shoots down a US drone as oil explodes higher. IPO mania continues. Gold seems to be breaking higher....

 

Friday, June 14, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks in the US were up by 0.57% A strong retail sales report. Executive confidence is declining. Industrial production was up in May but still down from December. Another hit to free markets as NY implements strong rent...

 

Friday, June 7, 2019

MARKET RECAP Stocks around the world went into a strong rally during the week. US stocks had their best day in five months on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials discussed possibly lowering interest rates. The Dow advanced by 512...

 

Friday, May 31, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks are down by 2.69% in the US and 1.12% outside the US. The technical damage begins to add up. More trade war threats with China and now Trump adds tariffs to Mexico and threatens more. The 3 month/10-year curve is...

 

Friday, May 24, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks fall by 1.14% on continued trade worries. The 3-month/10-year spread has inverted again. Trade relations with China continue to deteriorate and Mexico/Canada could be next. Weak PMI and durable goods reports. May...

 

Friday, May 17, 2019

MARKET RECAP The White House and China, falling right in line with the trade war playbook (that has led to economic declines), exchanged tariff threats on Monday, leading to the worst daily performance since December. The S&P dropped 2...

 

Friday, May 10, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks fall by 1.73% and international stocks were down by 2.33%. Trump hikes tariffs on China. Uber's IPO turns negative. MARKET RECAP The market rally since the December 24th low had been powered by a dovish turn by the...

 

Friday, May 3, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks around the world were up for the week. A very strong jobs report. Best productivity report since 2010. The Fed holds steady on interest rates. ISM numbers are down. Eurozone reports better growth. Chinese PMI falls...

 

Friday, April 26, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks are up and end the week at a record. International stocks fall. Q1 GDP comes in at 3.2%, exceeding estimates. Social Security to go into the red. MARKET RECAP US stocks were up by 1.25% and international stocks...

 

Friday, April 19, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks fall slightly and are just under all-time highs. International stocks advance. A very good retail sales report. Industrial production in China was up 8.5% for March. MARKET RECAP US stocks fell slightly, down by 0...

 

Friday, April 12, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks were up by 0.61% and international stocks by 0.38% IMF cuts growth outlook Jobless claims hit the lowest number since 1969. Brexit postponed until October 31. ECB ready to move if need be. US budget deficit up by...

 

Friday, April 5, 2019

Note to readers – this commentary contains several images and graphs. If you cannot see them click the option in your email to display images. HIGHLIGHTS US stocks were up by 2.12% and now less than 1% off the all-time high. A...

 

Friday, March 29, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks end the week, the month and the quarter on an up note. Equity trends are mixed while bond trends are up. Conference Board confidence turns down. The ratio between the leading and coincident indexes is narrowing. Lyft...

 

Friday, March 22, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks get slammed on Friday and fall by 1% for the week. The 3m/10yr yield curve inverts for the first time since 2007. Weak manufacturing reports in Europe and the US. Slow growth in US service sector. The budget...

 

Friday, March 15, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS The market reclaimed the high ground as US equities jump by 2.85% and international stocks were up by 2.79%.The Fed's neutral policy on interest rates and a stop in the decline of earnings estimates are providing a tailwind...

 

Saturday, March 9, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks were down by 2.38% and international stocks dropped by 1.80%. Negative technical signs for US equities. Only 20,000 jobs added in February. Interest rate policy turns dovish worldwide. The deficit is really...

 

Friday, March 1, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks were up but the Dow ended its nine-week winning streak. Q4 GDP comes in better than expected at 2.60% but Q1 is looking bleak. Interest rates increased during the week. MARKET RECAP US stocks were up by 0.45%,...

 

Friday, February 22, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks are up. A deal with China appears closer. Fed unwind might end soon. Stocks appear oversold based on percent selling above the 50-day moving average. Poor economic reports continue. Kraft Heinz takes a big hit on a...

 

Friday, February 15, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US and international stocks were up by 2.71% and 1.77%. Trade news on China appears to be moving in the right direction. A government shutdown is avoided. Economic news has generally been negative. MARKET RECAP US stocks...

 

Friday, February 8, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks managed a small advance, but international equities fell.Worries about the global economy and trade talks hurt the market.Growth forecasts in Europe and the UK are revised down.Jinping and Trump won't meet this...

 

Friday, February 1, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks rally on a market-friendly Fed press conference. Another strong jobs report. Estimated earnings for 2019 continue to be sharply cut. Howard Schultz may run for President and Corey Booker is. MARKET RECAP Stocks...

 

Friday, January 25, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks fall slightly. The S&P is up by 13.34% since the December 24th low. The government reopens for at least three weeks. Tax proposals by the Democratic left. More chaos in Venezuela. The LEI declines. Jobless claims...

 

Friday, January 18, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks are up again, +2.87% in the US and 1.97% x-USA. It is still early, but earnings reports have been positive, sales have been mixed. Economic reports slightly on the negative side. Investment legend Jack Bogle passes....

 

Friday, January 11, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks up by 3% and international stocks by 2%. The V-shaped recovery is now at an important technical point. High-yield spreads have fallen by almost 1%. Earnings continue to decline week by week. Some brick and mortar...

 

Friday, January 4, 2019

HIGHLIGHTS Another up and down week but stocks end in the black on a powerful labor report.Chinese PMI falls below 50.US PMI for manufacturing has a big drop to 54.1.A very strong payroll report in the US as nonfarm payrolls increased...

 

Friday, September 28, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks around the world fall. Oil jumps by 3.49% for the week. The Fed increases interest rates by 1/4%. Musk is out as Tesla’s chairman. The US and South Korea sign a free trade agreement. Equities are now the biggest...

 

Friday, September 21, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS Equities up around the world. Interest rates increase. US/China trade war gets hotter. High corporate debt might be the next problem for the market. MARKET RECAP US stocks advanced by 0.59% despite the trade war being ramped...

 

Friday, September 14, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks were up around the world. A week of good economic reports. The deficit continues to spiral out of control. Buybacks make up the largest portion of cash spending in the first half of the year. MARKET RECAP US stocks...

 

Friday, September 7, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS Markets fall worldwide. Emerging markets are now in a bear market. Tech stocks fall by the most since March.Nonfarm payrolls are up by 201,000 in August. Wages increased by 2.9%, the most in this expansion.The strongest ISM...

 

Friday, August 31, 2018

MARKET RECAP Stocks were up for the week but down on Friday on worries that Trump was planning to go forward with more tariffs on Chinese imports and on reports that the US and Canada were not able to reach a trade deal as hoped for....

 

Friday, August 17, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS US and international stocks continue in different directions, US +0.63% and international down 0.80%. Leveraged loans might be a fault line in the next recession. Retailers report good results. MARKET RECAP US equities were...

 

Friday, August 10, 2018

MARKET RECAP Turkey’s currency, the lira, dropped by more than 14% on Friday as their President instructed citizens to sell the dollar and gold and buy the lira. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that “This will be in...

 

Friday, August 3, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS US stocks increase by 0.72% but international stocks fall by 0.81%.Another strong payroll report.The ISM Manufacturers Index falls by the most in two years and hits a 3-month low, but the level is still high.More tariff...

 

Friday, July 27, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS Good news on the trade front with the European Commission.Stocks advance 1% around the world.$12 billion in tariff relief for farmers.Home sales continue to fall. MARKET RECAP There was a hint of good news on the trade front...

 

Friday, July 20, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS Solid earnings helped US equities to a small gain of 0.1%. International stocks were up 0.37%. Powell comments on free trade and then Trump fires back on interest rates. Higher US trade deficits might be on the way. Currency...

 

Friday, July 13, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS Stocks advance around the world. The S&P 500 breaks through its March and June highs, now 2.5% from the top. The White House proposes more tariffs on China. Consumer Confidence declines. Inflation increases at the fastest...

 

Friday, July 6, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS Markets move up around the world. Make it official, the trade war is now underway. Strong jobs report as 213,000 are added to payrolls. Workers are leaving their jobs at the fast pace in 17 years, confident that they can...

 

Friday, June 29, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS Stock fall by 1.42% in the US but are up by 3.2% for the first half of the year while international stocks are down by 1.06% for the week and down 3.52% year-to-date. Interest rates fall while the yield curve has flattened...